Voter Consumer Research for Mitch McConnell (6/15-17, likely voters, 5/21-22 in parens):
Bruce Lunsford (D): 39 (39)
Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 50 (50)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
This one comes a day after SurveyUSA released a poll showing Lunsford trailing McConnell by four points. McConnell’s camp pulled the exact same move in May after Rasmussen released a survey showing Lunsford beating McConnell by five.
However, one thing is clear: Mitch McConnell won’t be getting a free ride this year. Even McConnell’s own internals indicate that this race is closer than any election he’s faced since 1990. Lunsford, while hardly a darling of progressive Democrats, will be able to bring his own ample financial resources to the race so that McConnell will be pinned down at home. McConnell will have to navigate his re-election bid and his role as a steadfast champion of Bush’s unpopular policies in the Senate carefully.
With the polls starting to smile on Lunsford, SSP is moving its rating of this race from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican“. McConnell is a famously tenacious campaigner and is still heavily favored to win, but an upset is not outside the realm of possibility.
Like McConnell’s internals would make you move it down from Lean R rather than upgrading it from ”Races to watch”.